Research · 17. December 2018
Adding to the omnipresent discussion of Artificial Intelligence (AI), this paper examines whether spiking US venture capital developed into a dotcom-like AI bubble. Analysing venture capital, patent, and stock market data from 1990 to 2018, the paper finds little evidence for an AI-related bubble. To avoid throwing all caution of AI bubbles to the winds, the paper recommends two policy approaches to take advantage of the development and avoid harmful future bubble spread.
Research · 14. December 2018
Contributing to counter-racism strategies, this data essay analyses two data sets of survey experiments to give recommendations on how to react to subtly racial messages by the sitting President Donald Trump. The paper finds that pointing racism out works and should hence be done to make voters aware of the socially not acceptable behaviour. Furthermore, the limited impact from a single intervention on binary decisions encourages campaigners to call out repeatedly.
Policy Briefing · 04. December 2018
The German government provides subsidies to foster investments in broadband infrastructure – a key element in reaping economic and social benefits of digitalisation. This paper finds that the subsidies rely on flawed assumptions about the motivation and behaviour of subsidy-receiving telecom companies (free-riding fear, low demand, red tape) and suffers from ill-designed targets in its execution (time gaming, cream skim-ming administrative rivalry). Finally, it proposes policy recommendation.
Opinion · 03. December 2018
Capital account openness promised developing countries a leap in their economic development. Instead, increased inequality, undermined bargaining power, crisis contagion, and procyclicality dismantled the paradigm as a “bogus claim”. The paper therefore calls for a more careful approach to capital mobility in developing as well as developed countries.
Policy Briefing · 21. November 2018
This paper discusses the introduction of the UBI in the Russian Federation by shortly presenting its theoretical approaches and the need for poverty reduction in the country. The paper argues that political feasibility for UBI is low as increasing taxes (required to finance the additional public spending) will be vetoed by politically and economically highly influential oligarchs that regard their wealth to be at risk from new taxation.
Opinion · 19. November 2018
Rising inequality and capital accumulation at high-income households bring severe political and economic disadvantages. To tackle misdistribution of income without burdening middle-income households, this paper proposes to increase progressivity of capital income taxation (CaIT).
Policy Briefing · 08. November 2018
This policy briefing analyses the applicability of performance results and targets (PRT) in four policy areas of the Russian Federation (poverty reduction, safety, education, health,). Even when meeting their pre-conditions, successful application of PRT in the Russian administrative tasks is rare (access to health care, partially poverty reduction measures). Difficulties to design a PRT system, misguided incentives, and the weak structure of Russian administration hamper potentials.
Opinion · 05. November 2018
Positive effects of technical progress on employment have surpassed preceding negative effects in history and will likely do in future. This paper stresses that not only scope but also pace of negative and positive effects must be gauged. It therefore concludes that technical progress is good for employment but only if human capital adjusts quick enough to mitigate labour market disruption.
Opinion · 16. October 2018
This paper argues that fiscal policy should not be governed but guided by rules. Rules alone lack legitimacy, accountability, and flexibility, but in a hybrid fiscal architecture they can be alleviated of their detriments while contributing to better fiscal policies.
Research · 08. October 2018
Following its research question “What welfare production regime can the Russian Federation be assigned to?”, this paper applies the “social protection/skill regime” concept, developed by Estevez-Abe et al. (2001), to the Russian Federation. OECD and World Bank data show that Russia provides a relatively high employment protection (EP) and dangerously low unemployment protection (UP), who are both mismatched with the industry-specific skill regime provided by state education.